House prices forecast to fall following property tax changes: AMP | The Business | ABC NEWS

A leading economist is forecasting home prices could fall around 5 per cent as the government's tax changes and rising interest rates drive investors out of the market. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says the market is already slowing and prices in Sydney and Melbourne are falling. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been defending the reforms saying the CGT discount and negative gearing have fundamentally distorted the housing market. Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson says the changes will kneecap young Australians on multiple fronts, seeing them pay higher rents and increased tax on investments used to save for a deposit. The government hopes its changes will help 75,000 more Australians into home ownership over a decade, while modestly slowing house price growth by about 2 per cent over a couple of years. It estimates the median rent will rise by less than 2 dollars a week. These estimates by Treasury are broadly consistent with those of Grattan Institute says Matthew Bowes. Plus, Commonwealth Bank's chief economist Luke Yeaman joined The Business to discuss how the changes will impact investor appetite for property. #ABCBusiness Subscribe: http://ab.co/1svxLVE Read more here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-13/will-cgt-and-negative-gearing-make-housing-cheaper/106665146 Note: In most cases, our captions are auto-generated. #ABCNEWS #ABCNEWSAustralia